Re-examination of reflection effect under Bayesian decision model

Individuals use heuristics to make decisions or solve problems when faced with complex situations, and currently known can only explain limited human decision-making behaviors. Anchoring strategy is a proposed by Kahneman Tversky. It used decision-makers the target beyond decision-maker's judgment distance. be reflection effect loss aversion effect. On basis of this hypothesis, study attempts further test hypothesis Bayesian model. In order examine whether people anchoring strategies in reflex study, based on decision model, treats that follow principle mean reversion as world state S related maker's action A , case excluding conditional probability state, observe are still contrary expected utility under rational person so strategy. For reason, Experiment 1, we rationality profit scenarios (loss/gain) independent variables subjective participants different from objective probability. The results show main significant, situation there significant interaction between two. experiment 2, re-examined using By introducing calculation method probability, research confirm an explanation for has utility.